The NFL season is roughly a third of the way complete including playoffs so at this point, who teams are can start to become clear. Things will change, teams can get hot and turn their season around, some teams can fall off and collapse completely. Others might have had an easy schedule so far and others might be the opposite. Your record through the first few weeks doesn’t shape you but it can help paint a picture for what is to come. I was going to do this post before week 7 started but it is Friday already so I’m going to include last night’s game. This isn’t going to be an in depth analysis for every team; instead it will be a few thoughts and assessments for each AFC team so far. Tomorrow I will make an NFC version but today’s is just for the AFC. Starting with the AFC East:
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen has been incredible so far and has led to the Bills to the highest scoring offense. He has been extremely productive on the ground and is having another MVP-caliber campaign. James Cook has been very underrated to me. He has been efficient and is having arguably a better year than last year when he was the NFL’s leading rusher. With DJ Moore’s injuries, this team has lacked a clear number one receiver but the collection of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid have been successful. This offense looks very good but the defense is a concern. They have a bottom five scoring defense so far and if that does not improve, they won’t reach their Super Bowl aspirations. This team is very good but the defense holds them back too much for me to say they’re the best team in the league. They’ve been one of the best teams so far but I can’t say they should be the favorites at this point.
New England Patriots
New England is pretty good. They’re not going to win as much as last year but they should still be contending for a wild card spot. Drake Maye is a good quarterback, he isn’t going to be the runner-up for the MVP award like last season but I think he has made it pretty clear that last year wasn’t a fluke. He started off slow with some bad interceptions but he is one of the best deep passers in the league. If the interception pace slows a bit they might even challenge the Bills at the top of the division. Their defense has been hit and miss so far, holding Seattle to 13 but allowing 35 to Jacksonville for example. They seem like a traditional wild card level team. Overall the defense is above average and the offense is good at moving the ball, but costly turnovers have prevented them from turning yards into points too often. I expect this team to be good for the rest of the year and make the postseason if Drake Maye can cut down on the interceptions.
New York Jets
The defense is the identity of the team and they’re very good defensively. However, the offense sucks. Their offensive line is solid on paper but they have not been able to be productive with that. The run game is inefficient and hasn’t been productive. Geno Smith gets sacked too much and holds onto the ball for too long in key moments. And the pass catchers have struggled to make big plays. Garrett Wilson has been decent so far but nothing extraordinary. Rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq has a fantastic game against the Lions and that’s about it for him. I have high hopes for another rookie, wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. He has generated big plays when on the field and provides an explosive weapon to add alongside Garrett Wilson as a true WR2. He missed 4 games with an injury but when on the field he has been productive. AD Mitchell was productive in his two games played this year but has also been dealing with injuries. Before I completely count out this offense, I want to see how they do when they’re all healthy. But as of now, they’re not great and I think underperforming the talent that they have on paper.
Miami Dolphins
They suck by design. This year was never about winning for them and losing De’Von Achane doesn’t help at all either. This year is about finding out who is good to have for their future while also losing nearly every game in hopes of landing the first pick. They’re tanking. QB Malik Willis hasn’t shown he can be the guy moving forward so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them draft a new quarterback. That would mean passing on generational wide receiver prospect Jeremiah Smith which is a hard thing to do. But that is an April problem, not a right now problem. Ollie Gordon has looked decent in Achane’s absence, rookie WR Caleb Douglas looked solid in his two games, some of the offensive line looks decent like center Aaron Brewer, but no one else has looked good at all on the offense. The defense has been mediocre but there are some bright spots. Rookie LB Jacob Rodriguez was leading the league in tackles prior to their week six bye week. Even with the few positives, the team isn’t good. They haven’t led at all at this point in the season and I expect the losing to continue. They might beat the Jets and maybe the Colts and Chargers later on, but at max I see this as a 3 win team.
So in the AFC East, I think the Bills are the obvious favorites, Patriots are playoff contenders, Jets might be sneaky if they can get their offense together, and the Dolphins are tanking. For the Dolphins sake I hope they get the first pick since they don’t have much else going for them. Now moving on to the AFC North starting with the current division leader:
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are leading the division. Shocking, I know. I’m not convinced that Cleveland is a good football team. They’ve been good in close games and are 2-0 in the division but I don’t think their winning is going to be sustainable. The defense has been solid, they generate a lot of sacks and are about average in forcing turnovers, but the offense concerns me. Watson has been winning games but playing some pretty bad football. The run game is pretty inefficient and the team as a whole isn’t good at moving the ball downfield. They haven’t had a good offensive line this year and that paired with the lack of weapons has led to an unproductive offense. I think Denzel Boston has been very good for a rookie wide receiver but that’s about all the positives I have for this offense. He needs to get the ball more in my opinion, only having 17 catches through 6 games for someone doing as well as he is is not good enough.
Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m really not convinced that the Steelers are good either but I can say with confidence that they still feel like the Steelers even with Mike Tomlin gone. Their defense is pretty good and TJ Watt seems to be playing like himself again. The defense will be able to keep them in games that they normally would not be in otherwise. Aaron Rodgers was horrendous the first two weeks of the season but since then has been playing decent. Definitely not close to how he once was but still playing some decent football. Rookie wideout Germie Bernard was the standout last week tallying 11 catches and a touchdown, but the star of the show has been Jaylen Warren. Warren has nearly 720 scrimmage yards in 6 games this year which is top 5 in football. I don’t think he is being talked about enough this year. He still is viewed as a committee back to most people but he has been by far the best back in Pittsburgh this year.
Baltimore Ravens
Speaking of good running backs, Derrick Henry still has it. I do think he is starting to slow down a bit but the 32 year old running back continues to be productive. He isn’t getting as many big plays as in the past but he is still a reliable touchdown threat. The Ravens have been around a league average defense this year but their problems have primarily been offensive. Missing Lamar Jackson has not helped since when Lamar is healthy, he is a top 5 quarterback without a doubt. Zay Flowers has been arguably the best wide receiver in the entire conference at this point but there are problems on the offense. The offensive line hasn’t been very good and no one besides Flowers has shined as a receiver. Bateman is a poor WR2 and Mark Andrews has cinder blocks for hands. His drops continue to haunt Ravens fans and he’s lucky Baltimore beat Atlanta, or that would have been another loss that he was most to blame for. Lamar’s return this week or next week should help the team a ton, but he needs to be healthy for them to win this competitive division.
Cincinnati Bengals
Last in the division while having a winning record. Sounds like another cat team I know (my Lions). The Bengals have been fine but their identity so far is not at all what you would expect from the Bengals. The defense has arguably been better than the offense. For years now, the Bengals have been known as the team with an elite offense but a horrible defense, like the Cowboys; however, with the addition of Dexter Lawrence, the Bengals have had a pretty good defense. So you’d think that combining that Bengals offense with an average to above average defense and that would be an incredible team, yet they still look just fine. The offense hasn’t been great which might be more surprising than anything. The run game has been largely absent with Chase Brown having a bad year so far and Ja’Marr Chase hasn’t really gotten going yet. Burrow is playing fine but he hasn’t been lighting up the stat sheet like we’re used to. Tee Higgins has been the best receiver on the team up to this point and even though he is a great player, Chase needs to be better. I think the team is good and the offense needs Ja’Marr Chase to start looking like himself to propel this team to the top of the standings.
So in the AFC North, I expect Baltimore and Cincinnati to be the top 2 assuming Lamar gets healthy. I think the Bengals are a decent team and should only get better with Chase and Burrow getting it together. The Steelers will probably be the Steelers and win 9 or 10 games and even after a great start, I still think the Browns will finish last in the division. Their start is impressive but I don’t think they have the talent to sustain it for an entire season. Next, the AFC South:
Jacksonville Jaguars
The highlight of the worst division in the conference, the Jaguars have been pretty good so far. They killed Cleveland, blew it against Denver, killed New England, held on to beat Cincinnati, lucked out to beat Philadelphia, and lost to Houston at the last second in London. Trevor Lawrence has been one of the best quarterbacks in football and Parker Washington has looked like one of the best receivers at times. They have an elite defense (except last game) and do look like a top contender in the conference. After an elite rookie year in 2024, Brian Thomas Jr. has not looked like an NFL wide receiver in the time since. Travis Hunter has looked like an improved player since last year and Travon Walker continues to make improvements. If they are serious contenders, I think they need to be better at generating sacks and their run game needs to improve, but besides that, they do look like an elite team and Liam Coen looks like an excellent coach. They’re up there with Buffalo for the title of best team in the AFC in my eyes.
Indianapolis Colts
They’re not good. The defense is bad, the offense is bad, everything except the kicker and DeForest Buckner are bad. Injuries haven’t done them any favors but I don’t think this is a good football team at all. They have a good offensive line, in fact one of the best in the league but you can hardly tell at face value. You would think an elite offensive line would lead to a great Jonathan Taylor season but that hasn’t happened. You would think a good o line would allow Daniel Jones to replicate his success from early last year and that hasn’t happened either. Taylor has been great at scoring touchdowns but he hasn’t been efficient or explosive and Daniel Jones has just been bad. He lacks the ability in the run game now coming off his injury and he isn’t good as a passer. I was a hater last year and thought his success was a fluke and a product of Jonathan Taylor and it appears that he won’t be replicating that success. They are not a good team and he is not a good quarterback. If he proves me wrong, good for him but I think he is one of the worst starters in the league.
Houston Texans
I think Houston is better than their record. I know they lost to Indianapolis and I just wrote about how much I think Indianapolis sucks, but the NFL is a week-to-week league. What you’re doing now matters more than what you did in the past. Their defense on paper is extraordinary and I have belief that they can play closer to last year’s ability than they were to start the season. Will Anderson Jr. is one of the best defensive players in the league and they have names on that defense that should also shine. On offense, CJ Stroud has been terrific this year and is another guy that I think isn’t being talked about enough. The offensive line and run game have been awful but Stroud is still taking care of the football and putting up great stats. Jaylin Noel has emerged recently as a reliable pass catcher and Nico Collins is always consistent. Tank Dell is expected to play this week for the first time since December of 2024 and I hope he can stay healthy and produce. They should improve as the season goes on and on paper their schedule looks pretty easy. I wouldn’t be shocked if they go on a run the rest of the way and finish 10-7 or 11-6. I think they’re talented enough and the schedule is in their favor.
Tennessee Titans
Another team that is putrid. The defense isn’t terrible but they have the worst offense in the league. It’s either them or Miami but Miami was expected to be the worst. The offensive line is terrible, the run game has been terrible, the wide receiver room is average, they might have the worst tight end group in the NFL, and Cam Ward gas not been very good. Wan’Dale Robinson is not the receiver they were hoping for when they signed him and Calvin Ridley has been a non-factor. Rookie Carnell Tate has been decent and a bright spot but it is hard to shine with how bad the team has been. Jeffery Simmons has had a good start on the defense but the rest of them not so much. This team is awful on the field, yet they did manage to beat Indianapolis last week. They are one of the worst teams in the league and will be contending for a top 3 pick.
That’s it for the AFC South, I see the Jags winning the division and the Texans bouncing back from a terrible start to contend for a wild card. I think Indianapolis is awful but will still manage to win around 7 games on the year and finish in third. Tennessee will be a distant last place. Finally to wrap up the AFC, the AFC West:
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are back. They have one of the best offenses in the league and one of the best defenses. There’s not much else to say. After a bad year last year, they’re back to being Super Bowl contenders. Mahomes has been playing well but the true star is Kenneth Walker III. He has given the Chiefs an excellent run game which they have lacked since 2017. He is putting up some of the best rushing numbers in decades and is right there so far with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs in terms of total production. He has been unstoppable. The pass catchers haven’t been great and I do think they should look to acquire a wide receiver via trade, but they haven’t needed to do much with how dominant Walker has been. Defensively they have been excellent but before I crown them as the best team in the AFC, I want to see how they do against better teams. The Broncos are the only team that they have faced that are currently over .500 so I need to see how they do against other great teams.
Denver Broncos
I’ll start with the positives: their defense is solid and they typically have excellent second half performances. They win football games and force turnovers. That’s about all the highlights to me. I do think the team is better than they look on the field and that they are underperforming, but the record doesn’t show that. They’re 4-2, they must look pretty good. I think 4-2 is about accurate to where this team should be but on the field they look like they should be 1-5. Since they force turnovers, they’re pretty good at keeping their opponent to low scores even though they give up a lot of yards and can’t stop the run. Offensively is where they look even worse, ranking second to last in yards per game and bottom seven in passing, rushing, and points. It has been awful to watch and I know Ryan Fitzpatrick was getting a lot of pushback for what he said about Bo Nix, but I don’t think he’s wrong. His play has been disrespectful to the quarterback position. He doesn’t push the ball downfield at all even with the weapons he has. They have a top 5 offensive line in the league but the run game has been awful. They have zero big plays on the ground; their longest rush is for 17 yards. A run game averaging only 3.4 per carry is never helpful to the quarterback but a QB averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt is even worse. Courtland Sutton hasn’t been much of a factor, second year receiver Pat Bryant has looked decent, and Jaylen Waddle has not been able to produce how he was expected to after the trade. I don’t think the fault is all on the receivers since they have a quarterback who doesn’t try and push the ball down the field to them. Nix was fine the last two years but so far this year he has been terrible. It hasn’t killed them yet since they’ve been winning games but I don’t think this level of play is good enough at all. He needs to be better.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders surprised early by winning their first three games but they have lost three straight since then. They seem to be an average team and their defense had looked much better than last year, but recent games against New England and Buffalo have made me question how much the defense has actually improved. They have an average offensive line so far which is a great improvement for them which has helped Kirk Cousins be the league leader in passing touchdowns so far. Brock Bowers has been exceptional and has proved why he is the best tight end in the league. However, their biggest problem to me has been the run game. Backup Mike Washington has done pretty well with his limited carries but the RB1 Ashton Jeanty has disappointed. He has been solid in the pass game but as a rusher, he has been one of the worst in the league. He was otherworldly in college at Boise State but now against NFL defenses, he hasn’t been able to find success. I hope he turns it around but so far he has not lived up to being the number six pick in the draft. I expect Fernando Mendoza to take over later in the year if the losing continues but Kirk Cousins has done pretty well overall as the starting quarterback. I don’t think they’re a playoff team but I think they’re going in the right direction.
Los Angeles Chargers
Has anyone disappointed more than the Chargers? Last year they went 11-6, Herbert received MVP votes, they were a playoff team even with a depleted o line. They were expected to be good again this year and contend for the division. The offensive line was going to stay healthy, Omarion Hampton would take the next step, Ladd McConkey would play how he did his rookie year, the defense was going to be good, Herbert was going to win the MVP. None of that happened. Everything has gone wrong. The offensive line has been injured again, Hampton has not been good, McConkey isn’t even the leading receiver, Tre Harris is, the defense has been below average, and Justin Herbert has been terrible. I know drops have hurt the offense a ton, but even without the drops the team has been terrible. They had to start four rookies on the offensive line in a game and that went about how you would expect. Nothing is working for them offensively and they have the worst record in the league. They were expected to start 2-0 against Arizona and Las Vegas before the hardest part of their schedule started. There they would need to go about .500 in those games before finishing the season strong. That was the blueprint. Throw all that out the window because they have ended up losing every single game so far. Their season is over and I have very little hope that they can turn it around at all. They will be in top 5 pick conversations at the end of the year. They should look to sell older veteran players for picks since they obviously have no chance at this point. What a disappointment.
That’s all for the AFC West, the Chargers suck. The Raiders will be a mid-tier team, the Chiefs have the look of Super Bowl contenders, and the Broncos continue to win games despite their obvious flaws. I expect the Chiefs to win the division and the Broncos to contend for a playoff spot. The Raiders might contend for one in the end but I doubt it. And the Chargers? They should just give up.
Overall I think the Chiefs, Jaguars, and Bills have looked like the clear favorites in the AFC at this point. Then for the other four playoff teams, I expect it to be four of these six: the Bengals, Ravens, Texans, Broncos, Patriots, and Steelers. I think the Steelers are the worst team in that group but they always find a way. I think the Browns and Raiders will fall off despite their good starts and I expect teams like the Dolphins, Titans, and Chargers to continue to be some of the worst in the league. The AFC is a good conference and is pretty balanced across each division, with the North being the best and the South being the worst but it isn’t as unbalanced as the NFC which I’ll talk about tomorrow.
It is still way too early in the season to know for sure, but my pick for the AFC winner will be the Jaguars. I’m only picking them since they’ve never made it before. In reality, it’ll probably be the Chiefs again or maybe Josh Allen gets there for the first time, but I want Jacksonville at this point since Lawrence looks like the QB he was promised to be since high school and the defense is playing great football. But now that I picked them, I am fully expecting them to fall off and miss the playoffs. That does it for the AFC, I hope you enjoyed and look forward to the NFC tomorrow.
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